Last year, the French spent an average of 221 € during Black Friday, i.e. €18 less than in 2023 (source : Statista).
A figure that sums up the mood of the moment: consumption continues, but with discernment.
Gone are the days of impulse baskets and excess purchases. The 2025 consumer wants meaning, consistency and practicality.
Inflation eased to +1.2 1Q3 over one year in September, Insee), but households remain attentive to every expense.
Recent political changes have also slowed down major purchasing decisions, but have not dampened the desire to indulge.
The result: selective, rational consumption, more sensitive to perceived value than to the promise of "-70 %".
In this climate of clear-sightedness, brands can no longer simply reproduce the patterns of previous years.
They need to spot the subtle clues that are already pointing the way to the season ahead.
Sales forces, merchandisers and data analysts have these indicators at their disposal - provided they know how to interpret them in good time.
Five weak signals are particularly worth watching: they herald buying behaviour in November,
and reveal how consumers will arbitrate between desire, reason and opportunity.
1. The discrete shift in the average basket
This is the first indicator to be observed: the average basket is down slightly, by 5 to 10 % depending on the chain.
This figure, often trivial on the surface, hides a deeper reality. Consumers are not necessarily spending less, but they are spending differently: less, but better.
In the field, sales forces are already noticing this phenomenon.
Customers are comparing more, questioning durability, origin and after-sales service.
Sales teams can test alternative mechanisms: intelligent bundles, complementary products, coupled offers with usage value.
These micro-adjustments, measured in real time, help to avoid an overall drop in sales while respecting new buying expectations.
2. The silent disinterest of pre-campaigns
Every year, e-commerce sites and physical retailers multiply their "pre-Black Friday" activities: newsletters, waiting pages, countdowns. But a growing number of visitors are losing interest.
Bounce rates rise, clicks fall and teasers lose their appeal.
This early disengagement is a strong signal: it indicates weariness with the traditional promotional discourse.
Consumers no longer expect to be "teased": they want to be understood. Brands that tailor their communications to the real value of their offer (duration, service, usefulness) have a higher conversion rate.
In distribution networks, sales staff can test the receptiveness of messages even before the campaign begins: changing a catchphrase, asking a different question, observing shoppers' reactions. These field observations, consolidated and shared, help the marketing departments to readjust their tone before the official launch.
3. Local micro-offers that saturate the spotlight
Another discreet but revealing sign is the multiplication of "small" local operations.
Bakeries, concept stores and independent shops are launching their own promotions to attract customers who are saturated with national messages. These initiatives blur the market picture and nibble away at consumers' attention.
In some areas, the density of local offers is becoming so great that it makes the major commercial events difficult to understand.
This is a major field observation challenge: tracking these movements, identifying areas of saturation and adjusting advertising pressure.
Brands that keep a close eye on these local micro-trends - via their teams on the ground or their partners - can redirect their resources to areas where there is still potential to be exploited.
4. Invisible costs that eat into margins
One of the pitfalls of Black Friday is what you don't see straight away: the rise in logistics and raw materials costs, which is often overlooked just a few weeks before the event.
An increase in the price of cardboard, energy or express transport can be enough to reduce the effectiveness of a well-designed campaign.
Purchasing and supply departments therefore need to keep an active watch on their suppliers and service providers.
Simple alerts - unusual delays, occasional shortages, sudden cost rises - must be integrated into operational management.
Feedback from the field, from distribution or logistics partners, becomes an invaluable source of information.
5. The emotional climate in the field
It's the most human of signals, but also the most underestimated.
It doesn't appear on any dashboard, yet it influences everything: the words used by customers.
A "I'll wait", "I'll see later" or "I'm not sure it's worth it" says a lot about the buying climate.
These repeated micro-reactions form a trend.
Teams in the field (sales representatives, salespeople, promoters, sales managers, area managers, etc.) are the first to notice this change in tone. They sometimes detect hesitation, sometimes promotional fatigue, sometimes even mistrust of the discounts deemed artificial, specially introduced for the high point of Black Friday.
Gathering and centralising these signals enables us to adjust our strategy: change our posture, return to product education, promote transparency rather than urgency.
In 2025, this qualitative listening will become a strategic asset.
It's no longer just a 'feeling in the field', but data in its own right, to be integrated in the same way as sales figures.
Brands that know how to read it are ahead of the game.
Once these signals have been identified, the challenge is to turn them into decisions.
Between observation and action, there is a decisive passage: the ability to pilot quickly, to adjust quickly and to learn continuously.
From data in the field to operational decisions
The data alone tell us nothing.
It is their interpretation, informed by experience in the field, that makes them a performance driver.
Combining qualitative feedback with quantitative indicators provides a complete picture of customer behaviour.
Linking observation and action
A change in the average basket, a slowdown in traffic, a more cautious customer approach: taken in isolation, these elements have no value. Taken together, they tell a story and can be used to identify a gap or a new opportunity.
It is on the basis of this cross-functional analysis that sales managers can prioritise high-potential areas and adapt their levers.
Prioritising areas with potential
Some regions react earlier, others later.
Analysing these rhythms allows you to allocate resources to the right place: reinforcing teams, relaunching telesales/distance selling, increasing visibility on the most promising points of sale.
Dynamic mapping of local performance is better than a one-size-fits-all strategy.
Adapting levers to suit the terrain
A suburban shopping centre does not function like a city centre shop.
Where product demonstrations elsewhere it will be the advice or trial that triggers the sale.
Brands need to tailor their systems to the type of venue, customer profile and product category.
Commercial agility is based on these micro-adjustments, tested, measured and then duplicated. This is the best way to transform observation into performance.
Learning, again and again
Each campaign provides valuable lessons.
Brands that take advantage of this before the next one do gain in responsiveness and relevance.
Analysing what has worked, what has surprised and what has disappointed is the best way to prepare for 2026.
From responsiveness to sustainability: preparing for 2026 now
Observe, act, learn: these three reflexes define successful brands.
But in the long term, the real strength lies in the ability to capitalise on what the field reveals.
Turning insights into sustainable levers
The weak signals collected in 2025 will become the basis for the Black Friday 2026 strategy.
They are used to plan campaigns, anticipate staffing requirements, adjust product ranges or review logistics priorities.
Analysis in the field is no longer a one-off exercise, but a routine part of management using reporting and management tools. business intelligence supported by artificial intelligence.
Making the field a source of collective intelligence
Sales people and the teams who work in the field are not just executors: they are the sensitive sensors of the market.
By centralising their observations and encouraging dialogue between field teams and marketing departments,
companies create a virtuous circle of collective learning.
Integrating responsible performance
Major commercial operations can no longer ignore their carbon footprint.
Optimising travel, avoiding overstocking, pooling rounds: these economic levers are also ecological.
Today, responsible sales performance is as much a competitive advantage as it is a market requirement.
Conclusion
Black Friday 2025 promises to be an eye-opener. It will no longer be about "selling more", but about "understanding better".
Brands capable of reading weak signals, adjusting their message and steering with finesse will emerge stronger.
Not because they have sold off more, but because they have listened more closely to the market and consumers.
Service Innovation Group France supports companies in this process, combining commercial expertise, data analysis and qualitative observation. Because as we all know, an effective strategy always starts with a good understanding of the terrain.
